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Saturday, July 7, 2012

Lessons Learned: Disaster Preparedness in the Big City

The recent mass-power outage and heat wave was the second demonstration in less than a year of the weaknesses of the support system in D.C. and large cities in general. Based on my experience with these two events and a few snow storms, I've come to some conclusions about emergency preparedness here, and long term limited access to electricity.

In particular:

(1) In the event of a regional emergency, the roads will be impassable.
There is no evacuation plan for the DC area. In the snowstorm of 2010, everyone got trapped during rush hour. Everyone was sent home from work after the earth quake, creating an epic traffic jam as people tried to get home and get to their kids. After the Derecho, the power was out, the heat was oppressive, and no one knew it was -everywhere-, so the roads, without traffic lights, were jammed with cars packed with people thinking they could go out for breakfast or the mall for some A/C. The lesson is that the extant DC area transit crisis is amplified many fold when people take to the streets in conditions that are beyond routine. Attempting travel during these times is likely to be fruitless at best, and more risky at worst.
Point: If something bad happens, you need to be able to shelter in place.
This means having some clothes and munchies stashed at work, and enough supplies to survive at home for ~48 hours without power and without leaving.

(2) Communication and information availability will be poor.
Both personal and regional communication channels are limited in comparison with the size of the population. With large proportions of households using non-traditional telephony (e.g. phone through FiOS, cable, or no landline at all), personal communication channels are easily overwhelmed. During power outages, FiOS and Cable simply don't work, and their internet connections are disabled as well. This leaves the cellular network as the only means of communication, and there is not enough capacity to handle the increased demand. During all three events, it was nearly impossible to send access the internet, call, or send text messages, at least initially. I think after the 'shock' wears off the general populous, usage drops. Your cellphone may be your only method of communication for some time. Modern radio stations do not provide highly detailed information as they did during the cold war, but you can use them to get a clue. You are likely to find yourself at home, in the dark, without having a complete status of the world.
Point: Make sure you have a battery powered radio, and a car charger for the cellphone.

(3) There will be unusual side effects
During the power outage, stores had no ice, but did have lots of generators. After the earthquake, the dog park was packed. After the snow storm, the roads ended up well cleared, and everyone was asked to go to work, even though most of the cars that had been abandoned were towed.

(4) The stuff in the freezer will have to go
Things in the fridge can be iced down in a cooler for a long time, but a cooler with ice won't help a frozen pizza for long. You'll have to either find a way to eat the frozen food, or it'll have to be thrown out. Sorry.

(5) Have a plan for cooking
Camp stove, sterno, grill, something. Think about ventilation too. CO poisoning is always a problem. While during the power outage it was possible to go out to eat at restaurants after the first few days, it is fairly costly, so cooking at home remains appealing, especially considering all that food you're trying to keep cool in the cooler.

(6) Have a plan for lighting
A couple of flashlights are handy for short term outages, but if you find yourself in the dark for a few nights in a row, candles, a larger lantern (gas or electric) for area lighting makes things seem a lot more comfortable.

(7) The elements are going to get harsher
Once the power goes out, your abode is going to be at the mercy of the weather. A few lucky people are going to have woodstoves for heat in the winter. Cooling becomes a major problem, as modern houses and apartments are not meant to be comfortable without mechanical assistance. Think about what you're going to do to manage as things heat up for freeze. A fan that can run on batteries for the summer and a heavy blanket or sleeping bag for winter.

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